Singapore Sprint Qualifying: Verstappen Poles on an Untested Soft, Ferrari's Power Deficit Is Exposed, and Mercedes' Upgrade Package Falls Short

The first of Singapore's two qualifying sessions, the one that sets the grid for Saturday's sprint, is over. It was an interesting session, but also a chaotic one, and for reasons that had little to do with the track.

1. A Session Compromised by Data Problems and a Human Error

Trouble began long before qualifying. Throughout FP1, live timing, speed data and video transmission were highly intermittent. Singapore has always been a difficult location for broadcast signal, but with the sport approaching 2027 it is reasonable to expect the issue to have been solved by now. It was not, and it returned in Q1, where data repeatedly dropped in and out. During the session Antonelli reported a loss of power over the radio, and his engineer, Bono, replied that everyone was affected at that moment.

The explanation arrived only after the session. First the FIA announced a delay to the post-session procedure; later came a far more surprising communication: during Q1 a human error had deactivated the overtake mode, which provides additional power and top speed, and it was not reactivated until the session ended. The FIA states that no lap time was affected. Even so, with incidents of this kind becoming more frequent, it is fair to wonder whether the problem lies with the people operating the system or with the system itself.

2. Verstappen's Pole: Fastest on a Tyre He Had Never Run

Verstappen takes the first pole position of the weekend, and the result is all the more impressive given where he started. FP1 was a difficult session for Red Bull, with the steering wheel, pedals and seat all replaced.

Verstappen completed only 22 laps, against 25-31 for most of the field, and never ran the soft compound. He therefore went into Q3 on a tyre he had not tried at any point in the weekend, and set pole immediately.

Verstappen leads Russell by 0.120s and Leclerc by 0.243s, with Piastri, Norris and Hamilton following. Antonelli is seventh, 0.693s behind.

The gap between Verstappen and Russell is small. The largest difference is in Sector 1, where Verstappen is clearly the best of the field, while in Sector 3 the two are separated by only 0.038s. Sector 2 belongs to Ferrari and McLaren: Leclerc sets the best time (38.445s), with Norris 0.038s behind and Hamilton 0.113s behind, and the top positions are more tightly packed there than anywhere else.

Almost every driver at the front put their best sectors together. The only meaningful exception in the top ten is Hadjar, who left 0.899s on the table.

3. Telemetry: Where Ferrari Gains and Where It Cannot Follow

The new telemetry layout also marks the sector boundaries. In Sector 1, the gap trace shows Leclerc and Russell gaining on Verstappen early in the lap, helped by Verstappen's strong exit from Turn 3, before the gap resumes growing.

Sector 2 is where Ferrari is at its quickest. The gap to Verstappen falls from 0.4s to 0.2s thanks to high mid-corner speeds and Leclerc's very late lift off the throttle. Russell, by contrast, enters the sector further back, around 0.6s, and has more to recover.

In Sector 3 Russell recovers most of that time, carrying more speed into the very tight Turn 14. He and Verstappen are almost level, while the Ferrari does not keep up. This is where the car's power deficit becomes plain: Leclerc has the lowest top speed of the three on every straight, from the first through to the last. As we said at the start of the season, it is a gap that does not look recoverable.

Peak speeds are tightly grouped at 302-310 km/h, with Russell and Gasly on top at 310 km/h.

A second observation concerns tyres. As has happened in every sprint qualifying this season, Ferrari are stronger on the medium than on the soft compound, where they struggle.

The progression chart shows it: Leclerc was the fastest of all in Q2 (about 92.25s), but gained less than Verstappen and Russell in Q3 (about 0.85s, against 1.5s and 1.3s respectively). When the margin comes down to tyre and power together, Ferrari lose the decisive tenths.

Hamilton, in our view, delivered a very good qualifying session overall, but he overdid it once on the soft tyre. The onboard footage shows excessive throttle and steering inputs, and the car, which was not responding well, turned difficult to handle.

4. Mercedes: An Upgrade Package Going the Wrong Direction

With the 2026 championship situation effectively settled in their favour, Mercedes still have an issue worth noting: their upgrade package appears to have failed. It is expensive and bulky, and it is being compared directly from today through to Sunday, with Antonelli running it and Russell remaining on the previous aerodynamic specification. Today they also brought a new front wing, with a different flap and different pylons attached to the main plane, and Antonelli rejected that as well. Overall, most of their recent developments seem to have been turned down.

This matters beyond this weekend. Firstly, a choice has to be made: spare parts are limited, and it is not possible to produce five of each specification and then use neither. Secondly, and more importantly, this package was meant to prepare 2027. If the direction is wrong, it points to a problem that already exists or is about to.

The comparison with Russell shows a gap of 0.573s. Antonelli is competitive in the slow corners and Sector 1 is virtually identical, with only about 0.04s between them at the end of the sector. The difference grows in Sector 2, where the corners multiply and Antonelli loses a few km/h after another (17 km/h at Turn 9), and in Sector 3, where growing understeer adds to it.

The top speeds are the most telling element: Antonelli is consistently below Russell, by about 5 km/h on the longest straight. There are two explanations: either Russell's new power unit has been used to the full, or, more likely, the new package adds drag on Antonelli's car and limits his top speed.

5. Looking Ahead to the Sprint

Verstappen made a real impression: strong on the straights, fast in the medium-speed corners and, in the slow sections, he minimised his problems with a "V"-shaped driving style.

The sprint on Saturday will probably be a procession on this track, but there is a second qualifying session that decides Sunday's grid. As usual the parc fermé reopens, so teams will change set-ups and the order may well change.

See you after the sprint!