Singapore Qualifying: Verstappen's Pole on Minimal Mileage, Hamilton's Lost Tenth and Ferrari's Straight-Line Problem
This was a very good qualifying session in Singapore: intense and closely contested, with fast laps traded from Q1 to Q3. These are the sessions that show the sport at its best.
In the end Max Verstappen took pole, as he had done in Friday's sprint qualifying, with Leclerc 0.054s behind and Hamilton 0.123s behind.
1. Pole with Very Few Laps
What stands out most, as on Friday, is how little Verstappen needed to run.
He completed only 15 laps in qualifying, out-laps and in-laps included, against 22-25 for the Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes drivers. At team level the contrast is even clearer: Red Bull ran 18 laps in total, against 50 for Ferrari and 46 for McLaren and Mercedes.
Across the whole weekend so far (FP1, sprint qualifying, sprint and qualifying), Verstappen has completed 72 laps, against 85-91 for Antonelli, Leclerc, Piastri and Hamilton.
Considering that every top-team driver completed the sprint, Verstappen essentially had to get in the car and set the lap, with the right set-up from the start. That says a lot about the confidence he now has in the car, and it is a significant indication for tomorrow.
2. Hamilton: Fastest Until the Moment That Mattered
The only driver who could really challenge Verstappen was Hamilton, who looked in excellent form: fastest in Q1 and fastest in Q2, but only third in Q3, because he did not improve.
His line is almost flat between Q2 and Q3: an improvement of just 0.033s, against 0.526s for Leclerc and 0.266s for Verstappen.
The ideal-lap chart is the painful one. Combining his best sectors, Hamilton's ideal lap is 0.151s quicker than his actual best, enough to move him from third to pole.
Where did the time go? Mainly in Sector 3. His best Q3 sector there is actually 0.002s slower than in Q2, while all his rivals improved, Russell by 0.194s and Leclerc by 0.171s.
This is where Leclerc slipped through. He struggled with the car throughout qualifying, complaining over the radio that the brakes were not working and that he had no grip. Somehow, at the end, he moved past those problems and found a large improvement, especially in Sector 3.
Overall Verstappen sets the best Sector 1 and Sector 3, while Hamilton is fastest in Sector 2 by 0.118s from Piastri and 0.143s from Leclerc.
3. Telemetry: Ferrari in the Corners, Red Bull on the Straights
The comparison (Verstappen in blue, Leclerc in white and Hamilton in red) shows two things clearly.
The first is that the Ferraris carry more speed through almost every corner. At Turns 5 and 13, for example, Hamilton is 5-6 km/h quicker at the apex than Verstappen. The exception is the Turn 1-2 sequence, where Hamilton is 12 km/h down at Turn 2 and loses around 0.4s, but from there he recovers through the corners for the rest of the lap.
The second is where the Ferraris lose: on every straight, as always. Their top speeds are lower by anything from 2 to 10 km/h, for example 8-10 km/h on the straight before Turn 10 and on the run to Turn 14 at the end of Sector 2.
In practice, Red Bull have made a big step forward. They now seem able to set the car up properly, to make it balanced and above all to control the rear and give it good traction, which is where Verstappen used to struggle.
For Ferrari, the missing horsepower is a source of real frustration. The problem is now fairly well defined: it is a power deficit, and it will remain until the end of the season. Hamilton also suggested, however, that the car is very unstable in its set-up. In the interviews he said that the team only slightly changed the differential and the front wing angle, and the car changed completely. In other words, the car is quick but extremely sensitive to any change.
Ferrari are also the closest pairing on the grid: Leclerc 0.069s ahead of Hamilton.
4. Mercedes: Still Searching
Mercedes did not seem to be really in the fight. Antonelli continues to struggle with the updated car, although compared with sprint qualifying he gained almost 0.3s. Russell, on the other hand, was nearly half a second slower, but we would expect his set-up to be aimed at the race.
The upgrades have brought some progress. Compared with Friday, Antonelli is now around two tenths from pole, not seven as in sprint qualifying. Our impression is that the new parts need a more specific set-up, which a sprint weekend does not help with, and that they may also have narrowed the car's operating window, leaving a front end that is not very responsive.
Compared with 2025, Alpine have lost the least (1.243s), followed by Ferrari (1.739s) and Red Bull (2.033s).
5. Race Outlook
The race is likely to be a procession. Verstappen will certainly be the favourite, and the only ones who could fight him are the two Ferraris: they are the only team with two cars against one, which could be an advantage. In our view, though, the race will be decided more by strategy in the pit stops than on track. We will see what happens.
Good race to everyone, and see you after the chequered flag!